Anton Petrov explains “New Drake Equation Suggests 36 Alien Civilizations in our Galaxy”.
This is based on a recent paper. The range is from 4 to about 250. But the expected distance to the closest alien civilization is about 7000 light years.
Solar systems around Sun-like stars generally would form only in the outer reaches of the Solar System.
But civilizations capable of communications like ours may typically go extinct in a few hundred years because there are too many big things that can go very wrong. This would explain the Fermi Paradox.
We don’t seem to find any evidence of secondary civilizations produced by AI robots.
It’s also likely that earth-like planets have been around for at least 10 billion years and that we’re relatively late in the process of maturing as a civilization.
But your teenager who comes up with the latest global invention is probably not an alien.